The clear lead established by Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr in preliminary results from Iraq's election is not the outcome Washington had hoped for, but is not the worst possible scenario either, experts say.
Final results are expected by Tuesday, but the rise of the renegade cleric is the emerging headline from Iraq’s fourth election since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and the first since the defeat of ISIS last year.
While Mr Al Sadr's victory is not a win for the United States, it is not one for Iran either, and Washington's focus now will be on coalition formation in the 329-seat-parliament, as neither Mr Al Sadr nor his rivals hold a clear majority, experts and former US officials told The National.
James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Iraq and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: "The US has not had a good day in Iraq, because [its ally] Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi has had a bad day”.
But, he said: “Iran has not had a good day either, because [its allies] Nouri Al Maliki and Hadi Al Ameri did not make enough gains to form a governing coalition."
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Read more: Iraqi PM ready to 'cooperate' after election upset
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The preliminary results show the Sadrists getting about 54 seats, with Mr Al Ameri’s bloc coming second, and Mr Al Abadi a close third.
The rise of Mr Al Sadr is no surprise to Mr Jeffrey. Over the years, he has watched the religious nationalist leader build a movement that caters to working-class Shiites, but is at the heart of opposition to a US presence in Iraq.
“He has done fairly well in past elections, his troops fought against ISIS, the Sadrists are the most disciplined, and have done outreach to Iraqi Sunnis,” Mr Jeffrey said.
The main loser from the Sadrists’ comeback could be former prime minister Mr Al Maliki. Back in 2012, Mr Al Sadr formed an alliance with Ayad Allawi in an attempt to overthrow the then prime minister and Mr Al Sadr's Mahdi Army fought a war with Iraqi security forces under Mr Al Maliki in 2008.
The next step for Mr Al Sadr is to form a parliamentary coalition to pick a prime minister, although he himself is not eligible as he did not stand for election.
The cleric, who went into exile in Iran from 2008 to 2011, has recently built bridges with Iraq’s Arab neighbours. His visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE last year combined with a nationalist message that resonates with Sunni tribes, could go a long way in helping him form a coalition.
“If the current results were to hold, Moqtada would be the big winner,” said Daniel Serwer, a scholar at the Middle East Institute.
"I also think Moqtada is more likely to join forces with Mr Al Abadi than with Mr Al Ameri, but it is far too early to predict the outcome of government formation negotiations," he told The National.
What does this all mean for the US? Mr Serwer said Washington “will need to swallow hard and accept it, especially if the alternative is an Abadi-Ameri or Moqtada-Ameri coalition”.
The main goal for the US post-election should be the inclusion of the Sunnis and the Kurds in the political process, said Mr Serwer.
For Mr Jeffrey, it should be containment of Iran and preventing Tehran from further entrenching itself in Iraqi politics.
Jetour T1 specs
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Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
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Surianah's top five jazz artists
Billie Holliday: for the burn and also the way she told stories.
Thelonius Monk: for his earnestness.
Duke Ellington: for his edge and spirituality.
Louis Armstrong: his legacy is undeniable. He is considered as one of the most revolutionary and influential musicians.
Terence Blanchard: very political - a lot of jazz musicians are making protest music right now.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Kerala Knights 103-7 (10 ov)
Parnell 59 not out; Tambe 5-15
Sindhis 104-1 (7.4 ov)
Watson 50 not out, Devcich 49
How to become a Boglehead
Bogleheads follow simple investing philosophies to build their wealth and live better lives. Just follow these steps.
• Spend less than you earn and save the rest. You can do this by earning more, or being frugal. Better still, do both.
• Invest early, invest often. It takes time to grow your wealth on the stock market. The sooner you begin, the better.
• Choose the right level of risk. Don't gamble by investing in get-rich-quick schemes or high-risk plays. Don't play it too safe, either, by leaving long-term savings in cash.
• Diversify. Do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Spread your money between different companies, sectors, markets and asset classes such as bonds and property.
• Keep charges low. The biggest drag on investment performance is all the charges you pay to advisers and active fund managers.
• Keep it simple. Complexity is your enemy. You can build a balanced, diversified portfolio with just a handful of ETFs.
• Forget timing the market. Nobody knows where share prices will go next, so don't try to second-guess them.
• Stick with it. Do not sell up in a market crash. Use the opportunity to invest more at the lower price.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The biog
Name: Salem Alkarbi
Age: 32
Favourite Al Wasl player: Alexandre Oliveira
First started supporting Al Wasl: 7
Biggest rival: Al Nasr
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Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
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AVOID SCAMMERS: TIPS FROM EMIRATES NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
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Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
FIGHT CARD
Fights start from 6pm Friday, January 31
Catchweight 82kg
Piotr Kuberski (POL) v Ahmed Saeb (IRQ)
Women’s bantamweight
Cornelia Holm (SWE) v Corinne Laframboise (CAN)
Welterweight
Omar Hussein (JOR) v Vitalii Stoian (UKR)
Welterweight
Josh Togo (LEB) v Ali Dyusenov (UZB)
Flyweight
Isaac Pimentel (BRA) v Delfin Nawen (PHI)
Catchweight 80kg
Seb Eubank (GBR) v Mohamed El Mokadem (EGY)
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Ramadan Noaman (EGY)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Reydon Romero (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Juho Valamaa (FIN)
Featherweight
Elias Boudegzdame (ALG) v Austin Arnett (USA)
Super heavyweight
Roman Wehbe (LEB) v Maciej Sosnowski (POL)
