If the organisers' estimates are to be believed, the two million people who turned out on Hong Kong's streets on Sunday may have constituted not just the biggest demonstration in the city-state's history. Given that Hong Kong is home to seven million, it may have been the largest protest ever, in terms of the proportion of the overall population who attended, at around 29 per cent.
They were there to demand, principally, the retraction of a proposed bill that would allow extradition from the territory to mainland China – a move that critics complained would undermine Hong Kong’s protected autonomous status and expose individuals and businesses to what they view as the People’s Republic’s more opaque and politically influenced courts.
Sunday's protest appeared to have the desired effect. Carrie Lam, the former British colony's chief executive, had announced that the bill would be suspended indefinitely on Saturday. That decision followed a well-attended demonstration the previous weekend and violent clashes between police and protesters last Wednesday, when a debate on the bill had been planned.
By the end of this most recent gathering, Ms Lam had issued a grovelling apology and pro-Beijing lawmakers were making it clear that while the bill may not officially be withdrawn, it was dead in the water; it would not be reintroduced and would effectively “die” when the city’s Legislative Council ends its present term next July.
Ms Lam, a stern and long-standing civil servant who took over as the Beijing-approved chief executive in 2017, is now fighting for her political life. "We never really thought two months ago that there was much chance of defeating it," says Philip Bowring, a former editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review who is married to the pro-democracy politician Claudia Mo. "The government's own incompetence" is, he says, what led to the confrontation. Ms Lam attempted to rush the bill through, and continued to do so despite the mounting protests. "She's a hard-nosed bureaucrat who's terrible at politics," Mr Bowring says. "Everything she's done has just increased the people's opposition."
The consensus appears to be that Ms Lam's credibility is now shot. After what many consider to be the biggest cave-in to public pressure by the Chinese leadership since President Xi Jinping took office seven years ago, the question is not whether she can recover her authority, but how long she will stay in office to save face.
Ironically, Hong Kong retains enough independence for Ms Lam to be made the fall guy for this debacle. This despite the fact that virtually nobody really thinks that Hong Kong’s leader, who regularly met with top Communist party officials, took the decision to introduce the bill without the nod from Beijing.
Ironically, Hong Kong retains enough independence for Ms Lam to be made the fall guy for this debacle
So, how did they miscalculate so badly? One theory is that the leadership wanted to see what it could get away with in undermining the leeway granted to the city-state under the “one country, two systems” approach implemented as part of the agreement when the UK returned Hong Kong to China in 1997. Article 23 of its mini-constitution, the Basic Law, mandates that national security legislation should be passed that prohibits “any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion” against the central government. The last time an attempt was made to do so, in 2003, there were huge demonstrations and the bill was withdrawn. This led, in the opinion of many, to the resignation of the then chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, in 2005. If the extradition law was a test of opinion to see if Article 23 could be acted upon now, it failed.
“This was a step too far. It really frightened everyone,” says a senior figure in the city’s business community. “The threat to what the world views as Hong Kong’s western-style standard of rule of law was too much. Not just academics and activists but people in finance, shipping and commerce – people who normally might have been supportive of Beijing – got scared.”
Within the past week, there have been reports of tycoons moving hundreds of millions of dollars offshore, worried that their assets would no longer be protected by the firewall of Hong Kong’s separate – and much admired – legal jurisdiction. US senators and congressional representatives have also been threatening to introduce legislation that would end the city’s special trading status with America. The potential hit to the economy was taken seriously, both in Hong Kong and Beijing.
Referring to the fact that Hong Kong’s output made up 16 per cent of the Chinese economy in 1997, but only three percent in 2018, the business figure says: “Hong Kong both is and isn’t important. Yes, it has diminished in terms of its contribution to GDP. But it is still vital as a gateway. More than half of foreign direct investment into China last year came from Hong Kong.”
Lost in much of the coverage is the fact that the bill was supposed to be hedged with all sorts of guarantees that a new treaty would not allow people to be extradited for political or religious reasons, but only for a limited number of offences such as murder and rape. Hong Kong has also been severely criticised abroad for its lack of extradition arrangements – it only has them with 20 countries at present. Ms Lam claimed she originally brought the proposal forward because a Hong Kong man who admitted murdering his girlfriend in Taiwan could not even be charged in the city-state, let alone extradited. There was, to be fair, some justification for the law.
It was what it appeared to represent, however, that proved too much for the people of Hong Kong to stomach. Chinese media have denounced the protests as having been stirred up by meddlesome foreigners. It is perfectly true that politicians from afar, such as the territory’s last British governor, Chris Patten, have waded in. Its people, he wrote last week, “have seen their government connive with the Communist regime in Beijing to undermine their way of life and freedoms.”
At least Lord Patten had the grace to admit that Hong Kong was “a colony we acquired in woeful circumstances”. So woeful, others might say, that the UK and the US have no right to comment on the affairs of a part of China that only existed as a separate entity because it had been stolen by imperial pirates in the 19th century.
But, ultimately, Beijing and Ms Lam have not backed down because of foreign finger wagging. While it is true that they have done so out of economic self-interest, they have also had to listen to the people of Hong Kong. That is something to be celebrated. As is the fact that, while its citizens may not be able to vote for their chief executive (that choice is effectively made by Beijing), they do have the power to defenestrate their leader – as was shown in 2005 with Mr Tung, and will surely be shown in Ms Lam’s inevitable resignation.
The lesson that may be learned by Beijing, says Mr Bowring, “is that they can’t just ignore Hong Kong sentiment. They have to have someone there who has rapport with the people.”
Sholto Byrnes is a commentator and consultant in Kuala Lumpur and a corresponding fellow of the Erasmus Forum
Meatless Days
Sara Suleri, with an introduction by Kamila Shamsie
Penguin
1,000 Books to Read Before You Die: A Life-Changing List
James Mustich, Workman
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Points tally
1. Australia 52; 2. New Zealand 44; 3. South Africa 36; 4. Sri Lanka 35; 5. UAE 27; 6. India 27; 7. England 26; 8. Singapore 8; 9. Malaysia 3
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Manchester United v Barcelona, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
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RESULTS
6.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh82.500 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Meshakel, Royston Ffrench (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
Winner Gervais, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner Global Heat, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Firnas, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.50pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (D) 1,600m
Winner Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm Dubai Trophy (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (T) 1,200m
Winner Topper Bill, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,400m
Winner Wasim, Mickael Barzalona, Ismail Mohammed.
McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Vines - In Miracle Land
Two stars
Fire and Fury
By Michael Wolff,
Henry Holt
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
The five pillars of Islam
SPEC SHEET
Display: 10.4-inch IPS LCD, 400 nits, toughened glass
CPU: Unisoc T610; Mali G52 GPU
Memory: 4GB
Storage: 64GB, up to 512GB microSD
Camera: 8MP rear, 5MP front
Connectivity: Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.0, USB-C, 3.5mm audio
Battery: 8200mAh, up to 10 hours video
Platform: Android 11
Audio: Stereo speakers, 2 mics
Durability: IP52
Biometrics: Face unlock
Price: Dh849
Honeymoonish
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More Expo 2020 Dubai pavilions:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
The Land between Two Rivers: Writing in an Age of Refugees
Tom Sleigh, Graywolf Press
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
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