The "undercover economist" Tim Harford recently wrote: "The wonderful thing about a forecast is that both the forecaster and his audience feel that something profound has been expressed."
He was discussing the eruption of New Year forecasts coming in every direction, but especially in economics and finance. Everybody, it seems, is taking a stab at the level of the S&P 500, or the price of gold, or the dollar/euro rate at the end of December.
Now, I'm no economist, but I cannot resist the urge to peer into the crystal ball at least once a year.
So here, from my training in the "informed hunch, journalist gut-instinct" school of forecasting, are four predictions for 2013.
1. There will be a settlement in the long-running battle between the Al Gosaibi family of Saudi Arabia and Maan Al Sanea. Since May 2009 the two sides have been flinging everything at each other in a global war of words.
But both are exhausted, not least by the drain on their finances, and I hear over recent weeks that there is a mood to finally close the chapter and get on with life.
What kind of settlement is still being discussed. The Al Gosaibis are said to be close to a deal with their Saudi creditors, and the Saudi authorities are encouraging Mr Al Sanea to get involved in a general entente.
The Al Gosaibis may have to make a substantial sacrifice, like the sale of their lucrative drinks bottling business, to clinch a deal.
Foreign banks, out of pocket to the tune of billions of dollars, are unlikely to figure in the deal. Still, a partial peace is better than all-out war.
2. The legal action brought last year by Royal Bank of Scotland and two other international banks against a unit of Dubai Holding will be quietly dropped.
The action, brought in the autumn in a London arbitration court, caused a stir at the time, threatening to upset delicate restructuring negotiations. It was seen as a "line in the sand" by stressed creditors to Dubai Inc.
But as time has passed and no further information surfaced, it seems the action, set in train by legal rather than banking executives, brings no advantage to either side.
RBS has a big commercial banking and trade finance operation in Dubai, which it continues to see as a regional hub; Dubai Holding is on the cusp of some delicate negotiations over billions of dollars worth of debt maturing soon. Courtroom hostilities, even in the privacy of an arbitration chamber, are counter productive. The case will simply fade away.
3. More UAE companies will follow the example of NMC Health and list on the London Stock Market this year.
NMC resisted local pressure and chose London as the market to raise about £120 million (Dh711m) last spring. The UAE market authorities took the move badly, seeing either the Abu Dhabi market or the two in Dubai as NMC's natural home.
But the move has been a qualified success. The cash was raised, the share price performance has been solid if not stellar (though there has been an interesting uptick in recent weeks).
I hear at least two other UAE corporations are in final preparations for a London move that could be announced during the first quarter.
4. There will be further progress towards consolidation of UAE stock exchanges.
This, of course, talks directly to prediction number 3, above. Most market experts, national and foreign, believe UAE equities have too little liquidity and trading volume to justify the existence of three stock markets.
Master plans for consolidation have been on the drawing board for some time; there has been some progress in establishing a common trading platform between the two Dubai markets; less so with any commonality of interest between the capital and Dubai.
The impetus for a new round of consolidation will come eventually through the regulators in the two cities, which are increasingly open to the idea.
There you go. If my four predictions come true, you read it here first. If not, as Mr Harford says, "nobody remembers forecasts anyway".
fkane@thenational.ae
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
More on Quran memorisation:
A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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