Even a calamity of disease, death and economic destruction afflicting the world all at once isn’t enough to suppress the notion in some quarters that inflation could return with a vengeance.
The coronavirus crisis has killed hundreds of thousands, incapacitated millions and affected the livelihoods of billions – prompting policymakers to fear a deflation spiral reminiscent of the Great Depression. But economists including former Bank of England official Charles Goodhart, and investors such as BNP Paribas Asset Management, are asking if a different phenomenon lurks in the wreckage of global growth.
In terms of tail risks not being focused on, inflation is definitely one of them.
Such contrarians wonder if an environment of ultra-loose monetary and fiscal easing, commodity shortages, frayed supply chains and braking globalisation might be fertile ground for surging consumer prices. Reinforcing that shift, monetary authorities could face pressure to keep interest rates low, capping the cost of servicing ballooned government debt while allowing inflation to erode it too.
Even some traditionally deflation-wary thinkers have begun pondering that outcome. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Blanchard recently wrote that high inflation is “unlikely but not impossible", a sentiment echoed by former European Central Bank policymaker Peter Praet.
“I wouldn’t say that it’s a given that we’re going to be in a longer-term inflationary environment,” said Karen Ward, chief market strategist Emea at JP Morgan Asset Management. “But I wouldn’t say it’s going to be a negligible probability either.”
A limited dose of inflation might be welcome to central bankers who have spent trillions of dollars over the years in stimulus to achieve that. But such a prospect is far from their minds at present as they try to help economies facing eye-watering increases in unemployment. Almost half of the world’s workforce is in danger of losing livelihoods from the crisis, according to the International Labour Organisation.
“The deflationary shock is dominating, that’s absolutely clear,” Mr Praet said in an interview. “There’s a collapse of demand.”
Markets reflect that view, in tune with the oil slump and the prevailing perspective of weak prices sapped by adverse demographics, new technologies and globalisation. Inflation expectations, as proxied by five-year forward swap rates, are near record lows in the US and Europe. The UK 10-year break even rate is down nearly three quarters of a point below last year’s peak.
Some investors see things differently. BNP Paribas Asset Management, which oversees more than $450 billion (Dh1.7bn), has started building an overweight position in commodities for the first time in four years, while going underweight bonds. Ardea Investment Management, a Sydney-based hedge fund, said it “materially” added inflation exposure from late March after the collapse in market expectations of price growth.
“In terms of tail risks not being focused on, inflation is definitely one of them,” said Gopi Karunakaran, a money manager at Ardea.
That narrative diverges from another argument over the years – for example from Germany’s Bundesbank – that underlying conditions in some economies have long supported a pickup in prices.
One strand emphasises the synchronised stimulus – with monetary easing supercharged by fiscal largesse – as opposed to the asymmetric response during the financial crisis, when central banks cut rates and started quantitative easing, but governments reined in budgets.
“What we are doing is creating a policy framework that has an inflation bias in it, which is the first time we’ve had that in generations,” said Dario Perkins, chief European economist at TS Lombard in London and a former UK Treasury official. “The policy response is a wartime policy response.”
That conflict theme is one that Mr Goodhart agrees with. In a March 27 article with Manoj Pradhan, founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, he wrote that commodity costs will rebound with an economic recovery after lockdowns are lifted and stimulus takes effect. Inflation could exceed 5 per cent in 2021, and perhaps even reach 10 per cent – outcomes resembling the aftermaths of the First and Second World Wars.
“The monetary and fiscal expansion is aimed at, and will succeed at, putting money in the hands of people,” Mr Goodhart, a BOE rate setter from 1997 until 2000, said in an interview. “There will be some degree of pent-up demand.”
Goods disruptions caused by the virus, for example with Brazilian farmers unable to harvest coffee beans, might also linger. Colin Harte, a multi-asset portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, warns that the supply side “could be more damaged than we realised".
The further consequences of a potential unwinding of globalisation, and a renewed focus on local production, builds on that narrative.
“In the latter stages of the recovery, amid continued deglobalisation in goods trade and less elastic global supply, fiscal policies may begin to stoke inflation,” Berenberg senior economist Kallum Pickering said.
Some economic data might already point to price pressures. US money supply is surging, and Tim Congdon, a long-time watcher of such data, anticipates it will see its largest increase in peacetime this year – followed by an “inflationary boom".
For some analysts however, the prospect of inflation is seriously remote in a world where unemployment is going through the roof.
“It is naive to think everyone is going to get their jobs back when this pandemic virus goes away,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “Massive job losses mean price declines for many goods are on the way.”
For Mr Goodhart’s thesis of “double-digit” inflation to unfold, Mr Perkins reckons authorities would need to succeed relatively quickly in limiting deaths and shoring up growth, which isn’t a given. He isn’t worried.
Mr Blanchard, in an April 24 article for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also sees a far greater probability of low inflation. But a combination of swelling public debt, a jump in real interest rates, and deliberately loose monetary policy to aid government financing, could produce a different outcome.
“It would be a dream scenario for politicians that at some point inflation goes up,” Mr Praet said. “It’s not impossible. But I think the structural consequences of this shock go well beyond the simple narrative of a normalisation, once we have a vaccine.”
Section 375
Cast: Akshaye Khanna, Richa Chadha, Meera Chopra & Rahul Bhat
Director: Ajay Bahl
Producers: Kumar Mangat Pathak, Abhishek Pathak & SCIPL
Rating: 3.5/5
'The Sky is Everywhere'
Director:Josephine Decker
Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon
Rating:2/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESupy%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDani%20El-Zein%2C%20Yazeed%20bin%20Busayyis%2C%20Ibrahim%20Bou%20Ncoula%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFood%20and%20beverage%2C%20tech%2C%20hospitality%20software%2C%20Saas%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%20for%20six%20months%3B%20pre-seed%20round%20of%20%241.5%20million%3B%20seed%20round%20of%20%248%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBeco%20Capital%2C%20Cotu%20Ventures%2C%20Valia%20Ventures%20and%20Global%20Ventures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Three ways to boost your credit score
Marwan Lutfi says the core fundamentals that drive better payment behaviour and can improve your credit score are:
1. Make sure you make your payments on time;
2. Limit the number of products you borrow on: the more loans and credit cards you have, the more it will affect your credit score;
3. Don't max out all your debts: how much you maximise those credit facilities will have an impact. If you have five credit cards and utilise 90 per cent of that credit, it will negatively affect your score.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Baby Driver
Director: Edgar Wright
Starring: Ansel Elgort, Kevin Spacey, Jamie Foxx, Lily James
Three and a half stars
The years Ramadan fell in May
The years Ramadan fell in May
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Twin%20electric%20motors%20and%20105kWh%20battery%20pack%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E619hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C015Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUp%20to%20561km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EQ3%20or%20Q4%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh635%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs – Taycan 4S
Engine: Electric
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 571bhp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh431,800
Specs – Panamera
Engine: 3-litre V6 with 100kW electric motor
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 455bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: from Dh431,800
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Azizbek Satibaldiev (KYG). Round 1 KO
Featherweight: Izzeddin Farhan (JOR) beat Ozodbek Azimov (UZB). Round 1 rear naked choke
Middleweight: Zaakir Badat (RSA) beat Ercin Sirin (TUR). Round 1 triangle choke
Featherweight: Ali Alqaisi (JOR) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (UZB). Round 1 TKO
Featherweight: Abu Muslim Alikhanov (RUS) beat Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG). Unanimous decision
Catchweight 74kg: Mirafzal Akhtamov (UZB) beat Marcos Costa (BRA). Split decision
Welterweight: Andre Fialho (POR) beat Sang Hoon-yu (KOR). Round 1 TKO
Lightweight: John Mitchell (IRE) beat Arbi Emiev (RUS). Round 2 RSC (deep cuts)
Middleweight: Gianni Melillo (ITA) beat Mohammed Karaki (LEB)
Welterweight: Handesson Ferreira (BRA) beat Amiran Gogoladze (GEO). Unanimous decision
Flyweight (Female): Carolina Jimenez (VEN) beat Lucrezia Ria (ITA), Round 1 rear naked choke
Welterweight: Daniel Skibinski (POL) beat Acoidan Duque (ESP). Round 3 TKO
Lightweight: Martun Mezhlumyan (ARM) beat Attila Korkmaz (TUR). Unanimous decision
Bantamweight: Ray Borg (USA) beat Jesse Arnett (CAN). Unanimous decision
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SCE%20Studio%20Cambridge%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%2C%20PlayStation%204%20and%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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The specs
Engine: 5.2-litre V10
Power: 640hp at 8,000rpm
Torque: 565Nm at 6,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: From Dh1 million
On sale: Q3 or Q4 2022
WHAT ARE NFTs?
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are tokens that represent ownership of unique items. They allow the tokenisation of things such as art, collectibles and even real estate.
An NFT can have only one official owner at one time. And since they're minted and secured on the Ethereum blockchain, no one can modify the record of ownership, not even copy-paste it into a new one.
This means NFTs are not interchangeable and cannot be exchanged with other items. In contrast, fungible items, such as fiat currencies, can be exchanged because their value defines them rather than their unique properties.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Sebastian Stefan, Sebastian Morar and Claudia Pacurar
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2014
Number of employees: 36
Sector: Logistics
Raised: $2.5 million
Investors: DP World, Prime Venture Partners and family offices in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
MATCH INFO
Newcastle United 3
Gayle (23'), Perez (59', 63')
Chelsea 0
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
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DSC Eagles 23 Dubai Hurricanes 36
Eagles
Tries: Bright, O’Driscoll
Cons: Carey 2
Pens: Carey 3
Hurricanes
Tries: Knight 2, Lewis, Finck, Powell, Perry
Cons: Powell 3
The specs: 2017 Dodge Viper SRT
Price, base / as tested Dh460,000
Engine 8.4L V10
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 645hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 813Nm @ 5,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 16.8L / 100km
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday Stuttgart v Cologne (Kick-off 10.30pm UAE)
Saturday RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin (5.30pm)
Mainz v Borussia Monchengladbach (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v SC Freiburg (5.30pm)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (5.30pm)
Sunday Wolfsburg v Arminia (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim (9pm)
Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg (11.30pm)
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Players Selected for La Liga Trials
U18 Age Group
Name: Ahmed Salam (Malaga)
Position: Right Wing
Nationality: Jordanian
Name: Yahia Iraqi (Malaga)
Position: Left Wing
Nationality: Morocco
Name: Mohammed Bouherrafa (Almeria)
Position: Centre-Midfield
Nationality: French
Name: Mohammed Rajeh (Cadiz)
Position: Striker
Nationality: Jordanian
U16 Age Group
Name: Mehdi Elkhamlichi (Malaga)
Position: Lead Striker
Nationality: Morocco
Read more from Mina Al-Oraibi
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Company Profile
Company name: NutriCal
Started: 2019
Founder: Soniya Ashar
Based: Dubai
Industry: Food Technology
Initial investment: Self-funded undisclosed amount
Future plan: Looking to raise fresh capital and expand in Saudi Arabia
Total Clients: Over 50
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
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The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
WRESTLING HIGHLIGHTS
