As crude fell below $60 per barrel yesterday, dropping to 40 per cent of the record $147 peak scaled exactly a year ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said recovery in global oil demand would be delayed until next year.
In rolling out its forecast for the coming year, the energy adviser to the industrialised world said next year's oil demand picture could look "dramatically different" from this year's, with consumption set to rebound by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) or 1.7 per cent to 85.2 million bpd.
But the IEA said a sharp decline in oil prices in the past two weeks suggested that observers who had "confidently announced the bottoming out of the recession" were having second thoughts.
"The mood has suddenly changed, as many leading economic and energy indicators continue to show very weak readings, suggesting the 'green shoots' have been largely driven by a rebuild in industrial inventories rather than by a strong end-use demand."
Yesterday, crude extended a roughly 20 per cent slide from the eight-month high of $73.38 reached just last week, dipping as low as $59.01.
"The number one factor is still demand. It all goes back to the economy," Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at the Newedge brokerage in Tokyo, told Bloomberg.
"Destocking is probably largely over by now, yet demand data in key countries, predominantly the US, have if anything worsened in the past few weeks," the IEA said.
"We thus remain sceptical regarding the much-trumpeted, strong second-half 2009 demand rebound."
The agency pointed to "growing evidence that, for a second year in a row, the driving season in the US is petering out".
It said US motorists were feeling doubly pinched by the deep recession and increased prices at the petrol pump, causing them to drive less.
"The sensitivity of US drivers to retail price fluctuations depends largely on their income prospects," it said.
US government data released on Wednesday showed that petrol inventories in the world's biggest energy consumer increased by 1.9 million barrels last week, while stockpiles of distillate fuel such as diesel swelled by 3.7 million barrels.
The biggest surprise in the IEA's forecast for next year was its prediction of a "modest recovery" of about 100,000 bpd in oil demand by developed countries, as their economies "gradually emerge from their deepest slump in over half a century".
Less surprisingly, it said China and the Middle East would lead the larger expected rebound in global demand.
The IEA's oil demand forecast for the developed world contrasts sharply with Opec's prediction. The oil exporters' organisation said on Tuesday that oil consumption in the developed world had peaked in 2005 and would continue to decline for at least the next two decades.
The IEA said its forecast for next year was predicated on a gradual improvement in global financial and trade imbalances fuelling economic activity, notably in emerging countries. Should economic growth turn out to be "more subdued" than expected, the rebound in fuel demand would fail to materialise, it warned.
"There's still a strong note of caution. Demand data coming in for 2009 is still weak on a trend basis," said David Fyfe, the head of the IEA's oil industry and markets division.
On the supply side, Opec members' slipping compliance with the deep output cuts they agreed to last year could soften the immediate outlook for crude prices.
In June, the group delivered 2.9 million bpd of cuts, compared with 4.2 million bpd of reductions pledged since last September, according to the IEA.
It calculated that Opec compliance had fallen to about 68 per cent from nearly 80 per cent earlier this year, with production climbing by 75,000 bpd last month to 28.7 million bpd.
"Opec crude oil supply in June rose for the second successive month despite a wave of supply disruptions in Nigeria," the agency noted. Anti-government militants in Nigeria have mounted a series of attacks on pipelines and other oil installations, forcing Africa's biggest oil exporter to curtail 300,000 barrels of crude production in recent weeks.
In total, nearly 1 million bpd of output capacity in the country's volatile Niger Delta region is currently offline, the IEA reported.
Further damping immediate prospects for stronger crude prices, the IEA raised its forecast for oil supply from outside Opec, predicting growth of 190,000 bpd this year to 50.8 million bpd, instead of a 100,000 bpd drop.
Next year, the agency sees a further 410,000 bpd rise to 51.2 million bpd, with "strong growth in Azerbaijan, Brazil, global biofuels, the US Gulf of Mexico and Canadian oil sands".
tcarlisle@thenational.ae
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More on Quran memorisation:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
THE DEALS
Hamilton $60m x 2 = $120m
Vettel $45m x 2 = $90m
Ricciardo $35m x 2 = $70m
Verstappen $55m x 3 = $165m
Leclerc $20m x 2 = $40m
TOTAL $485m
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Vikram%20Vedha
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
Super Saturday race card
4pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 | US$350,000 | (Dirt) | 1,200m
4.35pm: Al Bastakiya Listed | $300,000 | (D) | 1,900m
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 | $350,000 | (Turf) | 1,200m
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 | $350,000 | (D) | 1,600m
6.20pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 | $300,000 | (T) | 2,410m
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 | $600,000 | (D) | 2,000m
7.30pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 | $400,000 | (T) | 1,800m
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SHAITTAN
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
TO%20CATCH%20A%20KILLER
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Planes grounded by coronavirus
British Airways: Cancels all direct flights to and from mainland China
Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific: Cutting capacity to/from mainland China by 50 per cent from Jan. 30
Chicago-based United Airlines: Reducing flights to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong
Ai Seoul: Suspended all flights to China
Finnair: Suspending flights to Nanjing and Beijing Daxing until the end of March
Indonesia's Lion Air: Suspending all flights to China from February
South Korea's Asiana Airlines, Jeju Air and Jin Air: Suspend all flights
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
11 cabbie-recommended restaurants and dishes to try in Abu Dhabi
Iqbal Restaurant behind Wendy’s on Hamdan Street for the chicken karahi (Dh14)
Pathemari in Navy Gate for prawn biryani (from Dh12 to Dh35)
Abu Al Nasar near Abu Dhabi Mall, for biryani (from Dh12 to Dh20)
Bonna Annee at Navy Gate for Ethiopian food (the Bonna Annee special costs Dh42 and comes with a mix of six house stews – key wet, minchet abesh, kekel, meser be sega, tibs fir fir and shiro).
Al Habasha in Tanker Mai for Ethiopian food (tibs, a hearty stew with meat, is a popular dish; here it costs Dh36.75 for lamb and beef versions)
Himalayan Restaurant in Mussaffa for Nepalese (the momos and chowmein noodles are best-selling items, and go for between Dh14 and Dh20)
Makalu in Mussaffa for Nepalese (get the chicken curry or chicken fry for Dh11)
Al Shaheen Cafeteria near Guardian Towers for a quick morning bite, especially the egg sandwich in paratha (Dh3.50)
Pinky Food Restaurant in Tanker Mai for tilapia
Tasty Zone for Nepalese-style noodles (Dh15)
Ibrahimi for Pakistani food (a quarter chicken tikka with roti costs Dh16)
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Hot%20Seat
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Bridgerton%20season%20three%20-%20part%20one
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The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: seven-speed PDK dual clutch automatic
Power: 375bhp
Torque: 520Nm
Price: Dh332,800
On sale: now
Company info
Company name: Entrupy
Co-founders: Vidyuth Srinivasan, co-founder/chief executive, Ashlesh Sharma, co-founder/chief technology officer, Lakshmi Subramanian, co-founder/chief scientist
Based: New York, New York
Sector/About: Entrupy is a hardware-enabled SaaS company whose mission is to protect businesses, borders and consumers from transactions involving counterfeit goods.
Initial investment/Investors: Entrupy secured a $2.6m Series A funding round in 2017. The round was led by Tokyo-based Digital Garage and Daiwa Securities Group's jointly established venture arm, DG Lab Fund I Investment Limited Partnership, along with Zach Coelius.
Total customers: Entrupy’s customers include hundreds of secondary resellers, marketplaces and other retail organisations around the world. They are also testing with shipping companies as well as customs agencies to stop fake items from reaching the market in the first place.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 0
Manchester City 2
Bernardo Silva 54', Sane 66'
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S23%20ULTRA
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