China's exports and imports contracted less than expected in October, providing some relief for the economy as Beijing tries to reach a partial trade deal with Washington.
But even if a US-China trade deal is signed soon, economists say it is unlikely to help boost exports and manufacturing for some time yet and could still mean more stimulus is needed from Beijing to avert a sharper downturn.
China's October exports fell for the third straight month, down 0.9 per cent from a year earlier, customs data showed on Friday, less than a 3.9 per cent fall forecast in a Reuters poll and September's 3.2 per cent contraction.
"Even if the "phase one" US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds facing exporters and outbound shipments look set to remain weak in the coming months," Martin Rasmussen, China economist at Capital Economics, said.
He attributed the rise in exports to a pick-up in US demand after both countries outlined an interim deal and Washington suspended a threatened tariff hike set for Oct. 15.
There were other bright spots in the data. Exports to the United States in October fell 16.2 per cent, less than a 21.9 per cent drop the previous month, according to Reuters calculation based on customs data.
Betty Wang, senior China economist at ANZ, said anecdotal evidence also showed exports may have been boosted as Chinese firms rushed out hi-tech shipments after the US government put some of the country's tech firms on a trade blacklist.
If a partial deal is reached this month, it is widely expected to include a US pledge to scrap tariffs scheduled for December 15 on about $156 billion (Dh572.9bn) worth of Chinese imports, including cell phones, laptop computers and toys.
So far, US President Donald Trump has only cancelled a scheduled Oct. 15 tariff increase on $250bn goods.
China's imports shrank for the sixth consecutive month, though the 6.4 per cent drop was smaller than an expected 8.9 per cent and September's 8.5 per cent decline.
That left China with a trade surplus of $42.81bn in October, versus September's $39.65bn surplus. Analysts had forecast a $40.83bn surplus.
Despite the more modest drop in imports, domestic demand appeared to remain weak, with imports of iron ore and copper falling.
The trade data lines up with recent readings on shrinking factory activity and bleak producer prices. The slowdown points to lingering weakness in domestic demand and the limited impact of policy stimulus so far.
Beijing and Washington have been locked in a trade feud for 16 months, but hopes have risen that an initial deal may be signed soon.
In a new sign of progress that lifted market sentiment, Beijing and Washington agreed to roll back tariffs on each other's goods as part of the first phase of a trade deal, officials from both sides said on Thursday.
The Chinese commerce ministry, without laying out a timetable, said the two countries had agreed to cancel the tariffs in phases.
In what could be another gesture to boost optimism, China's state news agency Xinhua reported late on Thursday that the Chinese customs and Ministry of Agriculture are considering removing restrictions on US poultry imports.
China's trade surplus with the United States was at $26.42 billion in October, up from $25.88bn in September, according to Reuters calculation based on customs data.
Economists and analysts warn that the path toward a full deal is still highly uncertain and expect that a partial trade deal may only relieve some pressure on the world's second-largest economy.
"We remain cautious on this. It is unlikely that the bulk of existing tariffs will be removed soon and other types of restrictions are also coming, implying decoupling and tension," said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.
Kuijs and others noted an improvement in import volumes, which could continue to gradually recover especially as local government step up infrastructure spending.
China's third-quarter economic growth cooled to its weakest pace in almost three decades hurt by soft global demand, slowing consumption at home and heightened trade risks.
To boost credit, the People's Bank of China cut the interest rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans on Tuesday for the first time since early 2016.
Analysts said the cut, while modest, may be a sign the central bank is turning more proactive, following a slew of downbeat economic data suggesting more stimulus is needed soon.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The five pillars of Islam
More on Quran memorisation:
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
The past Palme d'Or winners
2018 Shoplifters, Hirokazu Kore-eda
2017 The Square, Ruben Ostlund
2016 I, Daniel Blake, Ken Loach
2015 Dheepan, Jacques Audiard
2014 Winter Sleep (Kış Uykusu), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
2013 Blue is the Warmest Colour (La Vie d'Adèle: Chapitres 1 et 2), Abdellatif Kechiche, Adele Exarchopoulos and Lea Seydoux
2012 Amour, Michael Haneke
2011 The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
2010 Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Lung Bunmi Raluek Chat), Apichatpong Weerasethakul
2009 The White Ribbon (Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte), Michael Haneke
2008 The Class (Entre les murs), Laurent Cantet
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The five pillars of Islam
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
Results:
CSIL 2-star 145cm One Round with Jump-Off
1. Alice Debany Clero (USA) on Amareusa S 38.83 seconds
2. Anikka Sande (NOR) For Cash 2 39.09
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) Cash Up 39.42
4. Nadia Taryam (UAE) Askaria 3 39.63
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) Fidelius G 47.74
The specs
Common to all models unless otherwise stated
Engine: 4-cylinder 2-litre T-GDi
0-100kph: 5.3 seconds (Elantra); 5.5 seconds (Kona); 6.1 seconds (Veloster)
Power: 276hp
Torque: 392Nm
Transmission: 6-Speed Manual/ 8-Speed Dual Clutch FWD
Price: TBC
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
MATCH INFO
League Cup, last 16
Manchester City v Southampton, Tuesday, 11.45pm (UAE)
