Current climate policies will expose more than a fifth of humans to dangerously hot temperatures by 2100, a study says.
Despite the Paris Agreement pledge to keep global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, projections are that current policies will result in 2.7°C warming by the end of the century.
Scientists from the Global Systems Institute of the University of Exeter, associated with the Earth Commission and Nanjing University, say that about 60 million people are already exposed to an average temperature of 29°C or higher, which is classed as dangerous heat.
Two billion – 22 per cent of the projected end-of-century population – would be exposed to this at 2.7°C of global warming.
“The costs of global warming are often expressed in financial terms, but our study highlights the phenomenal human cost of failing to tackle the climate emergency,” said Prof Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.
The paper, 'Quantifying the Human Cost of Global Warming', highlights the “huge potential” for decisive climate policy to limit the human cost of climate change. It says rapid action to cut greenhouse gas emissions can prevent most of the damage.
“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.7°C would mean five times fewer people in 2100 being exposed to dangerous heat,” said Prof Lenton.
The research, was published in the journal Nature Sustainability, defines the concept of a human “niche”.
It says that human population density peaks in places with an average temperature of about 13°C, with a secondary peak at about 27°C, especially in South Asia.
Although less than 1 per cent of humans currently live in places of dangerous heat exposure, the study shows that climate change has already put 9 per cent of the global population – more than 600 million people- outside the niche.
“Most of these people lived near the cooler 13°C peak of the niche and are now in the ‘middle ground’ between the two peaks. While not dangerously hot, these conditions tend to be much drier and have not historically supported dense human populations,” said Prof Chi Xu, of Nanjing University.
While some cooler places may become more habitable due to climate change, population growth is projected to be highest in places at risk of dangerous heat, especially India and Nigeria, the study found.
Assuming a future population of 9.5 billion people, India would have the greatest population exposed at 2.7°C global warming – more than 600 million.
At 1.5°C, this figure would be far lower, at about 90 million.
Prof Marten Scheffer, of Wageningen University, said the economic costs of carbon emissions “hardly reflects the impact on human well-being”.
“Our calculations now help bridge this gap and should stimulate asking new, unorthodox questions about justice,” he said.
The study found that some countries such as Burkina Faso and Mali would become almost completely dangerously hot with a 2.7°C temperature increase.
Brazil would have the largest land area exposed to dangerous heat.
In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
HOW TO WATCH
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A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
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THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
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Infiniti QX80 specs
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Set-jetting on the Emerald Isle
Other shows filmed in Ireland include: Vikings (County Wicklow), The Fall (Belfast), Line of Duty (Belfast), Penny Dreadful (Dublin), Ripper Street (Dublin), Krypton (Belfast)
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the most popular virtual currency in the world. It was created in 2009 as a new way of paying for things that would not be subject to central banks that are capable of devaluing currency. A Bitcoin itself is essentially a line of computer code. It's signed digitally when it goes from one owner to another. There are sustainability concerns around the cryptocurrency, which stem from the process of "mining" that is central to its existence.
The "miners" use computers to make complex calculations that verify transactions in Bitcoin. This uses a tremendous amount of energy via computers and server farms all over the world, which has given rise to concerns about the amount of fossil fuel-dependent electricity used to power the computers.
MATCH INFO
Iceland 0 England 1 (Sterling pen 90 1)
Man of the match Kari Arnason (Iceland)
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
What is dialysis?
Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
