A letter from then UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher to then USSR leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985, as the Soviet Union was entering the endgame of decline and fall, carefully outlined London's recognition that Moscow had as much right to feel secure as its western counterparts.
Tony Brenton, a former UK ambassador to Moscow, cited that missive last week as he surveyed the stakes in the Ukraine-Russia war. The ambassador's reference point of an overarching balance of interests that is decades in the making was dramatically underlined when fighting broke out around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear energy facilities. As a fire raged around the facility, a 1980s-style scare went around the world on the possibility of a nuclear incident with far-reaching consequences.
A year after the Thatcher letter, the explosion at Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant took place. More than 35 years later, western leaders warned last week that the safety of all of Europe was directly threatened by events at a nuclear facility in that country.
Under international law, civil nuclear power plants and the peaceful development of nuclear technologies are distinct pillars from developing nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, a war involving a nuclear power has revived for many the spectre that the ultimate weapon would be used.
Escalations open the perils of miscalculation, misperception and misjudgement
TikTok is reportedly awash with videos on what to do if armageddon hoves into view. For some, it feels as if the library of Cold War information films on the “four-minute warning” should be given a modern spin. Mr Brenton noted there was an entire body of literature written during the Cold War on dealing with an actor who was not making straightforward calculations. In the first instance, nuclear weapons assume prominence earlier in the crisis than negotiators would assume.
Nuclear deterrence is built on, but not exclusively framed around, the theory of Mutually Assured Destruction. There have been some hot but localised crisis moments during the Cold War in which nuclear strategists were pressed into action. Short-range, low-yield battlefield nuclear weapons are an obvious concern in the Ukraine war. A whole of nuclear weapon fell outside the arms control treaties since the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019.
Patricia Lewis of the London-based policy institute Chatham House issued a note on the Ukraine war that posited that Nato would respond if nuclear weapons were used in the country. She said this would be on the grounds that the impact of such weapons crosses borders. This is to say nothing of the whole new set of thinking needed for containing and reacting to cyberattack threats that trigger nuclear arsenals or create false flags.
Another academic expert Ward Wilson wrote for the London-based European Leadership Network about a root-and-branch re-examination of the theory of nuclear deterrence.
There are no clear conclusions to be drawn from previous instances of deterrence. The most obvious example is the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when then US president John F Kennedy threatened to use military force in response to the Soviet Union’s installation of nuclear-armed missiles on the communist-run island less than 800 kilometres from Florida. There is still a split between those historians who say Kennedy was a hawk pushing for retaliation and those who believe he favoured a blockade over retaliation.
There are even doubts in some quarters that then Japanese emperor Hirohito surrendered to the US-led allied forces in 1945 as a result of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The orders given out to Japanese military two days after its surrender cited the Soviet Union entering the war against Japan – not the dropping of the "most cruel bomb" on two of its cities.
There is very little direct experience of the use of the weapon in war. On the other hand, according to Wilson, we can see the results of using artillery and missiles in an effort to break morale of a besieged population because there are plenty of examples of this type of bombing.
The effectiveness of nuclear weapons holds some keys to building adequate deterrence strategy. In the nuclear world, pretty much all there is to go on are tests and, in some senses, scenarios played out in exercises. Russia has ended some of its exercises with a tactical nuclear weapon, but when it comes to deterrence, those examples can be read two ways. Ultimately, there is psychological and emotional guessing that would underpin a nuclear stand-off. Classical deterrence is, however, focused heavily on the role of human judgement.
What if the person is flooded with anger? What if that anger recedes and rationality takes over? Can that equilibrium hold or will the anger come to the surface again? A threat to counter a potential attack might work at one hour but not the next day.
It is already known that escalations open the perils of miscalculation, misperception and misjudgement. There are no right or wrong answers, or at least, it isn’t clear what the right and wrong answers are. There are more likely just good and bad options.
For Mr Brenton, the difference is that the "Vladimir Putin I knew", who was the most single-minded, best-briefed, clear-thinking politicians on the scene, "would not have done this".
The complexity of deterrence, therefore, could not be more starkly challenged than at this moment in history.
Profile
Company name: Marefa Digital
Based: Dubai Multi Commodities Centre
Number of employees: seven
Sector: e-learning
Funding stage: Pre-seed funding of Dh1.5m in 2017 and an initial seed round of Dh2m in 2019
Investors: Friends and family
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Fund-raising tips for start-ups
Develop an innovative business concept
Have the ability to differentiate yourself from competitors
Put in place a business continuity plan after Covid-19
Prepare for the worst-case scenario (further lockdowns, long wait for a vaccine, etc.)
Have enough cash to stay afloat for the next 12 to 18 months
Be creative and innovative to reduce expenses
Be prepared to use Covid-19 as an opportunity for your business
* Tips from Jassim Al Marzooqi and Walid Hanna
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PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The five pillars of Islam
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
57%20Seconds
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Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%207%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2029min%2042ses%3Cbr%3E2.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%2010sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Geoffrey%20Bouchard%20(FRA)%20AG2R%20Citroen%20Team%20%E2%80%93%2042sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%2059se%3Cbr%3E3.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%9360sec%3Cbr%3ERed%20Jersey%20(General%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EGreen%20Jersey%20(Points%20Classification)%3A%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EWhite%20Jersey%20(Young%20Rider%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EBlack%20Jersey%20(Intermediate%20Sprint%20Classification)%3A%20Edward%20Planckaert%20(FRA)%20Alpecin-Deceuninck%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
SERIES SCHEDULE
First Test, Galle International Stadium
July 26-30
Second Test, Sinhalese Sports Club Ground
August 3-7
Third Test, Pallekele International Stadium
August 12-16
First ODI, Rangiri Dambulla Stadium
August 20
Second ODI, Pallekele International Stadium
August 24
Third ODI, Pallekele International Stadium
August 27
Fourth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
August 31
Fifth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
September 3
T20, R Premadasa Stadium
September 6
