Global warming is making cancer more common and more deadly for women in the Middle East and North Africa, scientists have warned.
Researchers said the rising number of cancer cases found in a study of 17 Mena region countries is small but statistically significant, suggesting a notable increase in risk and deaths over time.
“As temperatures rise, cancer mortality among women also rises – particularly for ovarian and breast cancers,” said Dr Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria, of the American University in Cairo, who co-authored the report in Frontiers in Public Health. “Although the increases per degree of temperature rise are modest, their cumulative public health impact is substantial.”
The researchers studied 17 Middle Eastern and North African countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Palestine.
These countries are already experiencing striking temperature rises. It has been another record-breaking month in the UAE, with the National Centre of Meteorology recording temperatures of more than 50°C. April was the hottest month on record.
Previous research has indicated that the Gulf is heating up especially quickly. Campaign group Greenpeace Mena has been raising awareness of the issue, pointing out that the temperature in Kuwait was nearly 50°C throughout last week; that Morocco issued an official heatwave alert for several provinces; and that Iraq and Egypt were also grappling with intense heat.
Scientists say higher temperatures in the region are compromising food and water security, causing poor air quality, disrupting infrastructure and affecting healthcare systems.
They say this can also mean greater exposure to cancer risk factors, such as environmental toxins, and lower the likelihood of receiving a prompt diagnosis and treatment.
However, the scientists said that while a combination of factors could lead to a major rise in the incidence of serious cancers, quantifying it was difficult.
The researchers collected data on the prevalence and mortality of breast cancer, ovarian cancer, cervical cancer and uterine cancer, and compared the information with changing temperatures between 1998 and 2019.
“Women are physiologically more vulnerable to climate-related health risks, particularly during pregnancy,” said co-author Dr Sungsoo Chun of the American University in Cairo.
“This is compounded by inequalities that limit access to healthcare. Marginalised women face a multiplied risk because they are more exposed to environmental hazards and less able to access early screening and treatment services.”
Running the numbers
The study found that the prevalence of the different cancers rose by 173 to 280 cases per 100,000 people for every rise in temperature by one degree Celsius. Ovarian cancer cases rose the most and breast cancer cases the least. Mortality rose by 171 to 332 deaths per 100,000 people for each degree of temperature rise, with the greatest rise in ovarian cancer and the smallest in cervical cancer.
The rise has not been uniform. The prevalence of breast cancer rose by 560 cases per 100,000 people for rise by one each degree Celsius in Qatar, but only 330 in Bahrain.
Researchers said extreme summer temperatures in some countries may have a greater impact, as could other factors which the model could not capture, such as higher levels of carcinogenic air pollution in some places.
“Temperature rise probably acts through multiple pathways,” said Dr Chun. “It increases exposure to known carcinogens, disrupts healthcare delivery, and may even influence biological processes at the cellular level. Together, these mechanisms could elevate cancer risk over time.
“Strengthening cancer screening programmes, building climate-resilient health systems and reducing exposure to environmental carcinogens are key steps.
“Without addressing these underlying vulnerabilities, the cancer burden linked to climate change will continue to grow.”
