US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said the economic effects of America's recently announced tariffs could force the central bank to decide whether to prioritise high inflation or weakening growth.
“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Mr Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago.
Unlike most other central banks, the Fed has two mandates – maintaining price stability and promoting employment growth. Economists fear that Mr Trump's larger-than-expected tariffs could reignite inflation, drive up unemployment and weaken growth.
“If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close,” Mr Powell said.
He said he expects the US economy to slow in the first quarter compared to last year's pace.
However, he maintained his suggestion that the Fed could be patient in cutting interest rates as it awaits “greater clarity” on tariffs, immigration, deregulation and taxation.
Mr Powell said tariffs will probably create at least a temporary inflationary bump but warned the effects could be more persistent.
Part of the reason why tariffs may not lead to a one-time surge could be due to disruption in the global supply chain as a result of duties on China, and the impact of tariffs on the auto industry.
“That is the kind of thing it can take time to resolve, and it can lead what would have been a one-time inflation shock to be extended, perhaps more persistent,” Mr Powell said.
“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem."
His comments come as uncertainty over Mr Trump's tariffs has led to increased volatility in financial markets. That has fed into the bond market, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising more than 50 basis points last week to about 4.5 per cent at the end of last week, before settling at about 4.3 per cent this week.
Despite the uncertainty and volatility surrounding markets, Mr Powell maintained they remained healthy.
"Markets are doing what they're supposed to do. They're orderly, and they're functioning just about as you would expect to function," he said.
The Fed held its benchmark rate at about 4.3 per cent during its March meeting. Traders anticipate it will hold interest rates steady again next month before resuming cuts in June, according to CME Group data.
Current data shows that the US economy is in a good place. Reports showed the inflation cooled last month and that hiring remains solid, although surveys show consumer sentiment is plunging because of tariffs.
For the most part, Fed officials largely agree that tariffs will lead to a one-time bump in inflation, and have not included a recession in their respective base-case scenarios.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Transgender report
Our commentary on Brexit
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Tuesday's fixtures
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Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
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Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
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Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
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Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
War on waste
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
More from this package
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
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Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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The five pillars of Islam
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPAD%20(2022)
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
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Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last-16, second leg:
Real Madrid 1 (Asensio 70'), Ajax 4 (Ziyech 7', Neres 18', Tadic 62', Schone 72')
Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate
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Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Tomorrow 2021
While you're here
Gavin Esler: Coronavirus offers stinging rebuke to protectionists
Kareem Shaheen: Pandemics can save us from waging wars
Sholto Byrnes: Why the climate change clash will get nastier
The biog
Name: Ayisha Abdulrahman Gareb
Age: 57
From: Kalba
Occupation: Mukrema, though she washes bodies without charge
Favourite things to do: Visiting patients at the hospital and give them the support they need.
Role model: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak, Chairwoman of the General Women's Union, Supreme Chairwoman of the Family Development Foundation and President of the Supreme Council for Motherhood and Childhood.
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Tomorrow 2021
Zayed Sustainability Prize
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS
England v New Zealand
(Saturday, 12pm UAE)
Wales v South Africa
(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
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Hussein Ibish: Could it be game over for Donald Trump?
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National Editorial: Hezbollah's murky dealings in Iraq have been unveiled
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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The specs: 2018 Maxus T60
Price, base / as tested: Dh48,000
Engine: 2.4-litre four-cylinder
Power: 136hp @ 1,600rpm
Torque: 360Nm @ 1,600 rpm
Transmission: Five-speed manual
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.1L / 100km
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
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Comment on Coronavirus
Plastic tipping point
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Tomorrow 2021
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MATCH INFO
FA Cup final
Chelsea 1
Hazard (22' pen)
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
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LAST-16 FIXTURES
Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Fight card
Preliminaries:
Nouredine Samir (UAE) v Sheroz Kholmirzav (UZB); Lucas Porst (SWE) v Ellis Barboza (GBR); Mouhmad Amine Alharar (MAR) v Mohammed Mardi (UAE); Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) v Spyro Besiri (GRE); Aslamjan Ortikov (UZB) v Joshua Ridgwell (GBR)
Main card:
Carlos Prates (BRA) v Dmitry Valent (BLR); Bobirjon Tagiev (UZB) v Valentin Thibaut (FRA); Arthur Meyer (FRA) v Hicham Moujtahid (BEL); Ines Es Salehy (BEL) v Myriame Djedidi (FRA); Craig Coakley (IRE) v Deniz Demirkapu (TUR); Artem Avanesov (ARM) v Badreddine Attif (MAR); Abdulvosid Buranov (RUS) v Akram Hamidi (FRA)
Title card:
Intercontinental Lightweight: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) v Angel Marquez (ESP)
Intercontinental Middleweight: Amine El Moatassime (UAE) v Francesco Iadanza (ITA)
Asian Featherweight: Zakaria El Jamari (UAE) v Phillip Delarmino (PHI)
