The world’s total public debt is forecast to exceed $100 trillion this year for the first time and could increase more because of higher spending pressures from governments as well as the slowdown in the global economy, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund.
Global public debt will reach about 93 per cent of global gross domestic product by the end of 2024 and will approach 100 per cent by 2030. This would be up 10 percentage points from 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic boosted government spending to support economic growth.
“Fiscal policy uncertainty has increased, and political red lines on taxation have become more entrenched,” the Washington-based lender said on Tuesday.
“Spending pressures to address green transitions, population ageing, security concerns, and long-standing development challenges are mounting.”
The report comes as the US heads to polls next month to elect a new president. Both the contesting candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, have promised new tax breaks and welfare policies that could increase spending in the world’s largest economy.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates reducing federal deficits, estimates Ms Harris' tax and spending plans would add $3.5 trillion to deficits over 10 years, while Mr Trump's would add $7.5 trillion, according to a Reuters report this month.
Debt-at-risk varies significantly across countries, the IMF said. For advanced economies as a group, three-year-ahead debt-at-risk has declined from pandemic peaks and is estimated at 134 per cent of GDP, whereas for emerging market and developing economies, it has increased to 88 per cent of GDP.
“Differences within and across country groups reflect an initial higher level of debt in advanced economies and large primary deficits in systemically important economies such as China and the US,” the lender said.
The debt out-turns could also be higher than projected due to unidentified debt – the change in debt not explained by interest-growth differentials, budgetary deficits, or exchange rate movements, according to the IMF.
Unidentified debt has historically been large, averaging 1.0 per cent to 1.5 per cent of GDP per year and increasing by up to 7 percentage points of GDP following financial system stress, it said.
The IMF also underlined the importance of rebuilding fiscal buffers to overcome unsustainable debt levels as central banks ease monetary policy and inflation moderates globally.
“Now is an opportune time to rebuild buffers … delaying is costly,” it said.
In countries where debt is projected to increase further – such as Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa, the UK, and the US, “delaying action will make the required (fiscal) adjustment even larger”, the IMF said.
Last month, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 50 basis points, initiating its first rate-cutting cycle in four years to protect the labour market as inflation slows.
In June, the European Central Bank also cut interest rates for the first time in five years, lowering them from a record high by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent.
Meanwhile, the IMF report outlined elements needed for fiscal adjustments. These include strengthening fiscal governance and measures to address debt distress.
“Governments need deliberate fiscal plans, framed within credible medium-term fiscal frameworks and modern public financial management systems to anchor their adjustment paths and reduce fiscal policy uncertainty,” the report said.
Countries must also avoid unidentified debt. Assessing contingent liabilities, including those associated with state-owned enterprises, and monitoring them closely are critical, it said.
Strengthening expenditure controls and active cash management can also limit overspending, it added.
For countries facing debt distress or unsustainable debt, “timely and adequate restructuring is needed, along with fiscal adjustments to restore debt sustainability”, the IMF said.
Increasing tax revenue as well as controlling expenditures should also be prioritised.
Emerging markets and developing economies have greater potential to increase tax revenue by upgrading tax systems and broadening tax bases, while advanced economies should reprioritise expenditures and increase revenue through indirect taxes where taxation is low.
Governments should also provide the public with more transparent and timely information on debt, including the composition of creditors and instruments, and exposure to risks as they focus on controlling debt.
Abu Dhabi Grand Slam Jiu-Jitsu World Tour Calendar 2018/19
July 29: OTA Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan
Sep 22-23: LA Convention Centre in Los Angeles, US
Nov 16-18: Carioca Arena Centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Feb 7-9: Mubadala Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Mar 9-10: Copper Box Arena in London, UK
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
Mina Al-Oraibi: Suleimani death casts a long shadow over decade ahead
Khaled Yacoub Oweis: Hezbollah bids to control Lebanon’s financial system
National Editorial: Hezbollah's murky dealings in Iraq have been unveiled
The national orchestra
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Tomorrow 2021
While you're here
Sholto Byrnes: Here's how this century can still belong to Asia
Brahma Chellaney: South China Sea is Asean's Achilles heel
The National Editorial: Territorial disputes require a mediator
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
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MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday (All UAE kick-off times)
Cagliari v AC Milan (6pm)
Lazio v Napoli (9pm)
Inter Milan v Atalanta (11.45pm)
Sunday
Udinese v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Sampdoria v Brescia (6pm)
Fiorentina v SPAL (6pm)
Torino v Bologna (6pm)
Verona v Genoa (9pm)
Roma V Juventus (11.45pm)
Parma v Lecce (11.45pm)
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
School uniforms report
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Russia v Scotland, Thursday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Our commentary on Brexit
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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MATCH INFO
Manchester City 4 (Gundogan 8' (P), Bernardo Silva 19', Jesus 72', 75')
Fulham 0
Red cards: Tim Ream (Fulham)
Man of the Match: Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
World Mental Health Day
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Part three: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Plastic tipping points
Tomorrow 2021
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
While you're here
Sulaiman Hakemy: Why it's important to lose elections
Rashmee Roshan Lall: US race relations in three words
Michael Goldfarb: First debate marks the end of an era
Tomorrow 2021
War on waste
The national orchestra
War on waste
Towering concerns
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Richard Olson: Why Afghanistan will be very wary
Kareem Shaheen on Canada
COMPANY PROFILE
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
More on Quran memorisation:
War on waste
Neighbourhood Watch
More on animal trafficking
World Mental Health Day
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
E-cigarettes report
Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
More on Afghanistan
Sulaiman Hakemy: 'Afghan' is now a globalised identity, whether the Taliban likes it or not
Editorial: The US-Taliban deal is only the first step to peace
Ken Hedricks: The Afghan scorpion farmer harvesting valuable venom for international buyers
Sulaiman Hakemy: Afghanistan's election results are finally released, but leadership remains overdue
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Mina Al-Oraibi: Iraq is in a fight to show its people who is really in charge
Khaled Yacoub Oweis: Iraq PM goes from shy writer to the political peak
The National Editorial: Iran's 'failed model' should be discontinued
More from Firas Maksad
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
World Mental Health Day
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
Kareem Shaheen on Canada
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Tips for used car buyers
- Choose cars with GCC specifications
- Get a service history for cars less than five years old
- Don’t go cheap on the inspection
- Check for oil leaks
- Do a Google search on the standard problems for your car model
- Do your due diligence. Get a transfer of ownership done at an official RTA centre
- Check the vehicle’s condition. You don’t want to buy a car that’s a good deal but ends up costing you Dh10,000 in repairs every month
- Validate warranty and service contracts with the relevant agency and and make sure they are valid when ownership is transferred
- If you are planning to sell the car soon, buy one with a good resale value. The two most popular cars in the UAE are black or white in colour and other colours are harder to sell
Tarek Kabrit, chief executive of Seez, and Imad Hammad, chief executive and co-founder of CarSwitch.com
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm
Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh130,000
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
English Premiership semi-finals
Saracens 57
Wasps 33
Exeter Chiefs 36
Newcastle Falcons 5
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
More from this package
Read more about the coronavirus
Tomorrow 2021
More from Neighbourhood Watch
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
The five pillars of Islam
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