Companies from banks to port operators and energy companies are lining up to grab their share of business opportunities arising out of Syria’s $500 billion reconstruction effort as the war-torn country opens up its economy.
Turkey’s Deniz Bank, which is fully owned by Emirates NBD, expects more financing opportunities to support Syria’s reconstruction, while the port operator DP World plans to ship more cargo out of Turkey to Syria.
Turkish conglomerate Kalyon Holding also expects more deals in Syria after signing a $7 billion energy investment agreement to build power plants in the country on Thursday. US and Qatar-based companies are also part of this consortium.
As part of the agreement, natural gas power plants with a total installed capacity of 4,000 megawatts and a solar power plant with an installed capacity of 1,000 megawatts will be built in Syria.
“Despite security challenges, the international community's commitment is strong in Syria, with support from the EU and the US,” Kalyon Enerji chief executive Murtaza Ata said in Istanbul.
Kalyon Enerji is a unit of Kalyon Holding, which has interests in a number of sectors, including construction.
“The group we formed is one of the best solution providers who can successfully implement all these projects,” Mr Ata said. “Syrian people are fed up with the struggle and the war of 15 years and are looking for development projects.”
The company is also looking at other opportunities in Syria, including the reconstruction of the airport, Kalyon Holding chief executive Mustafa Kocar said.
The company built Istanbul airport in Turkey and this expertise can be applied in Syria and other countries, he added.
Infrastructure devastated by war
The Syrian economy has been devastated by the civil war, with the UN's Development Programme estimating cumulative losses – including physical damage and economic deprivation – at more than $923 billion at the end of last year.
The estimated cost of reconstruction has varied from $250 billion and $500 billion, according to experts.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump made a surprise announcement about lifting economic sanctions on Syria as he visited Saudi Arabia to pave the way for investments in the country.
Following the decision, the European Union also said that it would begin lifting sanctions to help Syrian people rebuild the country.
Last week, Syria signed a separate agreement with Turkey for the supply of two billion cubic metres of natural gas to help the country overcome power shortages.
Deniz Bank is also bullish about Syria as the country reopens. “There will be a good opportunity for us,” Deniz Bank chief executive Recep Bastug told media in Istanbul.
“In the past, it was an opportunity of commercial, but now infrastructure and other parts of investment will be there … because Turkey has serious amount of construction power in terms of companies, there will be very important opportunities.”
Despite security challenges, the international community's commitment is strong in Syria, with support from the EU and the US
Murtaza Ata,
Kalyon Enerji chief executive
However, he did not elaborate on the extent to which the lender’s balance sheet would be strengthened due to opportunities in Syria.
Emirates NBD bought Deniz Bank from Russia’s Sberbank for $3.2 billion to expand its footprint in Turkey in 2018.
Kris Adams, DP World's executive vice president for East Europe, said the reopening of the Syrian economy provides new opportunities for ports in neighbouring countries for shipment of cargo.
“A country that has been war-torn for many, many years is finally looking at some positives and will require a lot of rebuild,” Mr Adams said in Istanbul.
“The ports in the country itself will be relevant, but also ports in neighbouring countries like Turkey, which has a border with Syria, will see more cargo flowing through in order to assist with that rebuild.”
Earlier this month, Dubai-based DP World signed an initial agreement with the Syrian government to develop the port of Tartus in an $800 million deal.
Opportunity for many nations
Syria reopening is “not just an opportunity for Turkey but also for many other nations”, according to Burak Daglioglu, president of the Investment Office of the Presidency of Turkey.
“After the lifting of sanctions, the opportunities will be for all countries, but the biggest opportunity will be for civilians themselves."
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What should do investors do now?
What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor?
Should I be euphoric?
No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.
So what happened?
It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.
"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."
Should I buy? Should I sell?
Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.
"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.
All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.
Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.
Will the rally last?
No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.
"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."
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