The real estate market in Dubai is set to enter a "moderate correction” in the second half of 2025 because of a record number of project launches, Fitch Ratings has said.
The correction – a phase in which price of an asset declines by 10 per cent or more – would run through 2026, but is not expected to exceed 15 per cent, as the strength of the prime real estate segment will support the rest of the market, the New York-based ratings agency said in a research note on Thursday.
While corrections that can last from days to months or longer could devalue asset prices and value of investment portfolios in the short term, they are also an opportunity for buying new assets at lower values.
Real estate prices in the emirate, the commercial and financial hub of the Middle East, have leapt by about 60 per cent from 2022 to the first quarter of 2025, Fitch data showed.
The market has maintained a robust momentum after bouncing back from the Covid-driven slowdown and its world-beating run was supported by government measure including multiple visa options for investors and policy measures that boosted ease of doing business in the emirate.
Over the past few years, there have been a record number of new property launches, which in turn will double unit deliveries in 2025 and 2026 compared to 2022 to 2024, "which could cause a price correction”, analysts at Fitch said.
"Assets in prime locations are more resilient to downturns and investor appetite for these assets, with longer investment horizons, should underpin their valuations. Delays in project completion might also alleviate pricing pressure,” Fitch said.
However, the ratings agency expects that banks as well as developers will be able to "tolerate” falling real estate prices, with the former in particular having a "solid ability to tolerate risks”, as banking sector exposure to property sectors fell to 14 per cent of total gross loans at the end of 2024, compared to 20 per cent at the end of 2021.
Despite the reduction in lending portfolio exposure, real estate still remains the largest component of banks' loan books. However, "while a drop in prices could lead to a moderate rise in stage 2 and 3 loans ratios at some of rated banks, we do not expect a sector-wide asset quality deterioration”, Fitch added.
Homebuilders, on the other hand, remain well funded, giving them a buffer to withstand a price correction as they have "reduced execution risk and have favourable pre-sales models, supported by robust order backlogs”, providing cash flow visibility, Fitch said.
Sustained demand from a growing population and heightened investor interest are driving property sales in Dubai. The property market has also been benefiting from government initiatives, such as residency permits for retired and remote workers, expansion of the 10-year golden visa programme and overall growth in the UAE’s economy on diversification efforts.
Real estate prices in Dubai rose above their 2014 historical peak in early 2024 on high oil prices and regional political instability.
Abu Dhabi's prices, meanwhile, rose by 21 per cent since the pandemic, although they remain below 2014 levels. Other emirates also recorded increases since the pandemic, but considerably less compared to Dubai.
Dubai launched a record number of projects in 2024, resulting in a supply of an estimated 150,000 units, half more than 100,000 in 2023. Deliveries would spike in 2026, when about 120,000 units are planned for handover, compared to 30,000 in 2024 and 90,000 in 2025.
"This rate of project delivery roll-out will test the absorption rate of the Dubai residential market in 2026–2027,” Fitch analysts said.
While Fitch estimates a prices correction, Betterhomes among the biggest property brokerages in the emirate expects rising interest from buyers.
The move to impose sweeping global tariffs by US President Donald Trump is unlikely to affect prices in the UAE real estate market, Betterhomes said a separate report.
Interest is coming from US and Chinese investors, "signalling a renewed appetite for Dubai real estate as a stable and strategic investment destination”, said Louis Harding, chief executive of Betterhomes.
The sustained momentum of the emirates' economy, its strong tourism sector, high public spending and diversification efforts that continue to mitigate external risks, also add to the appeal of Dubai's property market, according to Betterhomes's report.
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Tomorrow 2021
School uniforms report
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
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National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
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Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
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The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
School uniforms report
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
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Arabian Gulf League fixtures:
Friday:
- Emirates v Hatta, 5.15pm
- Al Wahda v Al Dhafra, 5.25pm
- Al Ain v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 8.15pm
Saturday:
- Dibba v Ajman, 5.15pm
- Sharjah v Al Wasl, 5.20pm
- Al Jazira v Al Nasr, 8.15pm
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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The lowdown
Rating: 4/5
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The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
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• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
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• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
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The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Part three: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
World Mental Health Day
Saudi National Day
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
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Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
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Tomorrow 2021
Plastic tipping points
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
Tomorrow 2021
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Our commentary on Brexit
- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
Company%20Profile
Palestine and Israel - live updates
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World Mental Health Day
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
More on Quran memorisation:
RESULTS
Transgender report
Zayed Sustainability Prize
THE CARD
2pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
2.30pm: Handicap Dh 76,000 (D) 1,400m
3pm: Handicap Dh 64,000 (D) 1,200m
3.30pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh 100,000 (D) 1,000m
4pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (D) 1,000m
4.30pm: Handicap 64,000 (D) 1,950m
• Remittance charges will be tackled by blockchain
• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Shelina Janmohamed: Why shouldn't a spouse be compensated fairly for housework?
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY
Starting at 10am:
Daria Kasatkina v Qiang Wang
Veronika Kudermetova v Annet Kontaveit (10)
Maria Sakkari (9) v Anastasia Potapova
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Ons Jabeur (15)
Donna Vekic (16) v Bernarda Pera
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Zarina Diyas
'Falling%20for%20Christmas'
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Richard Olson: Why Afghanistan will be very wary
MORE FROM ED HUSAIN: The UAE-Israel accord is a win for every Muslim
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
More from Neighbourhood Watch
RESULT
Copa del Rey, semi-final second leg
Real Madrid 0
Barcelona 3 (Suarez (50', 73' pen), Varane (69' OG)
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Tomorrow 2021
Chris%20Jordan%20on%20Sanchit
While you're here
Con Coughlin: To survive, Nato must renew its sense of common purpose
Gavin Esler: Nato summit failed for making news more than it made deals
Simon Waldman: Nato continues to be Ankara’s best security guarantor
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Mission%3A%20Impossible%20-%20Dead%20Reckoning%20Part%20One
Our commentary on Brexit
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
Transgender report
The national orchestra
Company Profile
Company name: Fine Diner
Started: March, 2020
Co-founders: Sami Elayan, Saed Elayan and Zaid Azzouka
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and food delivery
Initial investment: Dh75,000
Investor: Dtec Startupbootcamp
Future plan: Looking to raise $400,000
Total sales: Over 1,000 deliveries in three months
While you're here
The National editorial: Turkey's soft power weighs heavy on Europe's Muslims
Con Coughlin: How extremists use Zoom and other tools to exploit pandemic
Nicky Harley: Peace TV preacher Zakir Naik prompts UK hate laws review
25-MAN SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Francis Uzoho, Ikechukwu Ezenwa, Daniel Akpeyi
Defenders: Olaoluwa Aina, Abdullahi Shehu, Chidozie Awaziem, William Ekong, Leon Balogun, Kenneth Omeruo, Jamilu Collins, Semi Ajayi
Midfielders: John Obi Mikel, Wilfred Ndidi, Oghenekaro Etebo, John Ogu
Forwards: Ahmed Musa, Victor Osimhen, Moses Simon, Henry Onyekuru, Odion Ighalo, Alexander Iwobi, Samuel Kalu, Paul Onuachu, Kelechi Iheanacho, Samuel Chukwueze
On Standby: Theophilus Afelokhai, Bryan Idowu, Ikouwem Utin, Mikel Agu, Junior Ajayi, Valentine Ozornwafor
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Sound of silence in South Asia
Fanar Haddad: The Iranian response will be gradual
While you're here
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Mustafa Alrawi: To get the 'jab' done, governments must show patience and empathy
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
Mina Al-Oraibi: Suleimani death casts a long shadow over decade ahead
Khaled Yacoub Oweis: Hezbollah bids to control Lebanon’s financial system
National Editorial: Hezbollah's murky dealings in Iraq have been unveiled
